Saturday, December 13, 2008

Remaining Moves Seem Obvious

The Yankees now have 4/5 of their rotation set with CC, Wang, AJ and Joba. Also, 2b, SS, 3B, LF, RF, DH, and C are all set. The bullpen is also set with Mo followed by a cast of thousands. So the three remaining spots are a starter, 1b and cf. The way I see it the Yankees have two options;

Option 1 - Total Additional Cost 20 million(1o for Cameron and 10 for Andy)
Trade for Cameron, Use Swisher at 1B and sign Andy Pettite(12m)

Option 2 - Total Additional Cost 20 million (all for Texiera)
Use Melky/Gardner, sign Texiera and let Hughes, Kennedy and Aceves fight it our for the last spot.

So the cost is equal so which would be more productive? Lets compare the offense first. I am going to use Bill James' projections for 2009 for the comparison.

Option 1 - Cameron(.237/.325/.759) and Swisher(.240/359/.810)
Option 2 - Texiera (.299/.397/956) and Melky(.271/.337/.731)

Now I understand how bad Melky was in the second half but if you substitute Gardner for Melky at times a CF with an OPS of low .700s with good defense is reasonable to expect. Even with that poor production in CF the Texiera/Melky combo is far superior with better defense.

And the pitching-
Andy Pettite - 12-10 3.90, 192 IP
Phil Hughes - 9-5 3.35, 125 IP
Andy is a safer bet but Hughes has more upside for next year.

One other thing, the ages
Option 1 Andy(37), Cameron(36) and Swisher(28)
Option 2 Texiera(28), Melky (23), Hughes(22)

So for about equal if not better production and the same cost you get a group with more upside that is far younger. So why are the Yankees out of the Texeria sweepstakes? The fear of having too many long term contracts should be offset a bit by Matsui and Damon coming off the books next year. Also, the Yankees have no 1b prospects to speak of and the free agent market in 09 and 2010 and completely void of potential answers.

The answer seems obvious to me. Let's hope Cashman sees the light before its too late.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Burnett will be Pavano redux. What about the needed 6th starter? 180 million payroll and can't make the playoffs. Yanks GM is way overrated. Boo-hoo.

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