Monday, January 5, 2009

Many Moves....But Are we Any Better?

Let's assume that the Yanks are pretty much done for the off season and we'll be going to war with the currently situated roster (including Andy as I still think that is a foregone conclusion). There is no doubt that we are a different team, but are we a truly better team? Many pundits and posts have forecasted that while the Yanks will be better, it will only be marginally so. Let's take a look at the new roster when compared with 2008 and see if we agree - 

2008 Line up-

Damon LF/DH
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Arod 3B
Giambi 1B
Nady LF/DH
Cano 2B
Molina C
Melky/Gardner CF

Our 2009 version features the following substitutions-

Posada for Molina
Teixeira for Giambi
Matsui for Abreu

The worst swap here is Matsui for Abreu, which is likely a wash. The other 2 swaps are significant upgrades.

The 2008 rotation saw the following (# starts/ERA)-

Mussina (34/3.37)
Pettitte (33/4.54)
Rasner (20/5.40) 
Ponson (15/5.85)
Wang (15/4.07)
Kennedy (9/8.17)
Hughes (8/6.62)
Pavano (7/5.77)
Joba (12/2.60*)
Geise (3/3.53*)
Aceves (4/2.40*)
Igawa (1/13.50)
(*combined starting/relieving ERA)

Of the 161 starts in 2008, 50 (31%) were made by either Rasner, Ponson, Pavano, Geise, Aceves or Igawa; OUCH!

For the rotation in 2009, if we assume that CC provides only the same season that Moose gave us last year (though he should provide more), and that Pettitte is exactly the same (though I expect better without the shoulder strain), we would be replacing all of the non-Moose/Pettitte starts with an additional 15-20 from Wang and Joba each, and 30+ from Burnett/Hughes. 

I might be dumb, but it sure seems that this is a massive upgrade to me!

We won 89 games last year and have made significant upgrades to both our lineup and our rotation - anyone who is looking for less then 100 wins in 2009 is not paying attention!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Come on, homer!

Yes, the Yankees are better. No doubt. But do you really expect-

Pettite to be better as a 37 year old than he was as a 36 year old? How many pitchers, with over 2700 career innings, get better at that age?

Burnett to make 30 starts? Ten years in the bigs, and he has done that twice. That's 20% of the time for those of you mathematically challenged. And he's now 32 - not exactly the time to be setting endurance highs.

The other thing you didn't take into account is the aging of Jeter, Damon and Matsui. There is bound to be some drop off there.

Finally, in the Yankees' division, winning 100 games is a fantasy. The other teams are just too good.

Put the Yankees down for 90-95 wins - any more is counting on breaks that you just can't reasonably predict.

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