Sunday, January 31, 2010

How Bad for the Yankees is Arod's Contract?

After the 2007 season Alex Rodriguez signed a 10 year $275 million contract. For a player with a single team bidding entering his age 32 season this was quite the player friendly contract. Before Arod signed with the Yankees the lack of interest around baseball was significant enough that the MLB player association discussed filing a grievance. So while the Yankees might have overpaid how much have they overpaid? First lets get an idea of the production you can expect from Arod for the duration of the contract. Baseball Think Factory ran some rough projections before the 2008 season, I have replaced the 2008 and 2009 numbers with his actual production;

The RBI numbers will probably drop as Arod goes from a 3-4 hitter to a bit lower in the lineup as he ages. 2013-2017 seem to the big issue. Arod project to be a slightly above average player for most of the time(the average OPS in 2009 was .758) while most likely remaining the top paid player in baseball. You add in the potential 20 million a year Jeter will require for a 4 year extensions and the Yankees could be dishing out 50 million a year in 2013 and 2014 for below average players. They will have an additional 47 million invested in CC and Texieira. Texieria will only be 33 in 2014 and CC 32 so you can expect a fairly high level of production from those two. However the 2013/2014 Yankees will have 100 million in 4 players, possibly achieving only slightly above average production from those 4 spots.


Essentially what the Arod contract has forced the Yankees into is a budget minded approach where they will have to produce cheap players from within their own system. If they do not even the Yankees don't have the financially ability to spend their way into contention. As we get deeper into Arod's contract it will get worse and worse. I know this one is supposedly on Hank but Cashman has to get some blame here too.

But how bad is the contract? Ask me again when Arod is a 41 year old DH producing below average production while making 32 million a year....

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